The prognosis with regard to the GDP growth for 2015-2016 is slightly lower than in autumn: the forecast shows unchanged 2,5% growth for the year 2017. The rate of inflation has been modified downwards for 2016, so the Commission’s forecast is in conformity with the governmental macro-path.
The growth of the Hungarian economy exceeds the EU’s average throughout the forecast horizon. Adjusted to the cyclicality of the use of EU funds and compared to the outstanding result (3,7%) in 2014, the real GDP expanded moderately in 2015 (2,7%) and it is expected to increase this year by 2,1%, while more intensively in 2017 (2,5%). The Commission’s prognosis remains 0,4% in 2016 and 0,6% in 2017 below the growth path expected by the government.
Positive processes will continue in the labour market, according the Commission. All-time low unemployment will decrease to 5,2% in 2017 (that is the third lowest rate among the 28 member states), meanwhile the employment rate and the activity continues will expand. The Commission does not attribute primary role to public work scheme in these processes.
The progress of the budget keeps continuing: the Commission is expecting 2,1% deficit that is 0,3% lower than it was planned in the Budget Act and this could decrease slightly to 1,9% in 2017. The decrease of the debt-to-GDP ratio is steady and its rate is getting faster: the ratio is expected to have sunk from 76,2% in the end of 2014 to 75,8 last year, and to keep decreasing to 74,3% this year and to 72,4% in 2017.
